Things could get interesting for U.S. Senate incumbents of both parties in 2010, especially with the Democratic majority again seeking a fillibuster proof 60 seats. With 37 races on the ballot, about 20 of them, in my opinion, present opportunities for exciting matchups and electoral fireworks! The list below presents these potential races. These are merely predictions and not set races for 2010.
1. Alaska – Murkowski (R) v. Knowles (D). Murkowski also faces a challenge from Palin in the GOP primary
2. California – Boxer (R) v. Schwarzenegger (R). Assuming Schwarzenegger survives a likely GOP primary fight from the right of his own party.
3. Arizona – McCain (R) v. Napolitano (D). Would the popular former Governor be willing to abandon Homeland Security for the Senate, especially against a high profile incument?
4. North Dakota – Dorgan (D) v. Hoeven (R). Dorgan’s a Democrat in a red state. Could he survive such a matchup?
5. South Dakota – Thune (R) v. Herseth-Sandlin (D). Democrats have been out for revenge since Thune narrowly took out Daschle in 2004.
6. Oklahoma – Coburn (R) v. Henry (D)
7. Iowa – Grassley (R) v. Vilsack (D). Would Vilsack be willing to give up Agriculture for the U.S. Senate against a Senate fixture?
8. Missouri – Carnahan (D) v. Blunt (R). An open seat always presents fireworks and an influx of cash from either party. Can Carnahan transform name recognition and a recent Democratic lean in the state into a Senate seat?
9. Arkansas – Lincoln (D) v. Huckabee (R). Could Huckabee become only the second Arkansas Republican in the Senate since Reconstruction?
10. Wisconsin – Feingold (D) v. Thompson (R).
11. Indiana – Bayh (D) v. Pence (R). As Republican Conference Leader in the House, Pence has a huge public profile, but will he be willing to give it up for a shot at the Senate or wait to take on the aging Dick Lugar in 2012?
12. Kentucky – Bunning (R) v. Mongiardo (D). Mongiardo lost in 2004 by only 2 points. Bunning’s recent comments regarding Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s cancer, concerns about his mental fitness for the job, low poll ratings, and the lack of Bush on the ballot this year make this potential rematch a likely Democratic pickup.
13. Florida – If the 2000 Presidential race here had you sweating bullets, the 2010 Senate race for the open seat is bound to be just as close. Possible Republicans include popular GOP Rep. Connie Mack and current Gov. Charlie Crist. Democrats eyeing the seat might include Reps. Kendrick Meek and Debbie Wasserman Schultz – both young and media savy.
14. South Carolina – Graham (R) v. Clyburn (D). Would Clyburn be willing to abandon House Majority Whip for the Senate?
15. Maryland – Mikulski (D) v. Steele (R). Steele just won GOP chair and was a popular Lt. Gov. But if he couldn’t win for the GOP against Cardin in 2004, his odds are long in this solidly Democratic state.
16. Delaware – Is this seat being held for Beau Biden? Survey says – probably so!
17. New York – The big question isn’t will Gillibrand make it to the general election, but will she survive the primary. In a liberal state with an anti-gun swing, odds are she won’t. Even if Long Island Rep. Peter King were to run, this seat is probably safe for the Democrats – probably a current House member from downstate.
18. Connecticut – Dodd (D) v. Rell (R). New England has solidified as a Democratic base and Rell is popular. Angst over Dodd’s role as chair of Senate Banking could present some roadbumps, otherwise Dodd should be OK.
19. Vermont – Leahy (D) v. Douglas (R). Governors in Vermont serve only 2 years so Douglas would face a challenge with two races against a popular incumbent and a high profile one as Judiciary chairman.
20. New Hampshire – like Vermont, Governors in New Hampshire serve only 2 years. However, John Lynch is highly popular in a state that’s been trending bluer over the past few election cycles. With this seat open, it’s a free for all.
21. Hawaii – Inouye (D) v. Lingle (R). Little Hawaii way out in the Pacific gets little play in national elections. It’s solidly Democratic, so much so it’s taken for granted. Inouye (D) has been in the Senate since 1962 and may ultimately retire. Lingle’s a popular Gov. who may make this one a fight; even more so if Inouye retires.
… but I don’t think you’ll see “Headline Match-ups” across the board like this.
I’m glad that you’re taking advantage of the Diaries feature. However, since we only have space for 10 user diaries on our side bar, we ask that people be a bit judicious with what they post. For example, your diary on New Jersey redistricting would have been better suited as a reply to duffman’s diary on the same subject.
Also, two diaries in a row by the same person goes against the unwritten rules of SSP. Obviously we have some flexibility with this, but since your two most recent diaries were both on the subject of the 2010 Senate races, I don’t see any reason why you could not have combined both diaries into one post.
Thanks for understanding.
To get just a few of these would be exciting indeed. You could also add a Hoeven-Dorgan match-up in North Dakota, that would obviously be very heated.
I have posted a have a fairly extensive database of all the potential Senate candidates from both parties over at Campaign Diaries.
What’s your opinion of Vitter’s potential challengers?